Bitcoin Just Jumped to $68,500 and the Dow Surged 1,100+ Points — But Can It Last? – AirdropHunt

Markets exploded upward overnight after President Trump signaled the US could leave Iran within weeks. Bitcoin briefly hit $68,589, the Dow surged more than 1,125 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 2.91% and 3.83% respectively.

But analysts warn this rally may not hold — and the data explains why.

What Drove the Rally

Trump withdrawal signal: The president told reporters the US could exit Iran in “two to three weeks”
Iran reportedly seeking exit: Unconfirmed reports suggest Iranian President Pezeshkian is also looking for a way to end the conflict
Oil relief hopes: Markets are pricing in the possibility of lower energy costs if the Strait of Hormuz reopens

The Market Numbers

Bitcoin: $68,589 (up from ~$66,000 earlier in the day)
Dow Jones: +1,125 points
S&P 500: +2.91%
Nasdaq: +3.83%

Why Traders Are Skeptical

Despite the strong move, on-chain and derivatives data tells a cautious story:

Spot demand is flat: Stablecoin inflows to exchanges are near a two-year low. Real buyers are not showing up
Futures open interest unchanged: Most of the price action is driven by headlines and perpetual futures, not new money entering the market
Short-term traders are underwater: Average cost basis sits at $85,800 — meaning anyone who bought recently is still in the red
Key resistance levels: Analysts say BTC needs a daily close above the 50-day moving average and $68,879 to confirm a trend change

If those levels break, short liquidations could trigger a rapid rally toward $82,000. If they hold as resistance, expect a pullback.

What This Means for You

Do not FOMO into the rally — the data suggests this is headline-driven, not a structural shift (yet)
Watch $68,879 — a sustained close above this level changes the picture
Oil investors: If you have been holding energy stocks as a war trade, consider taking some profits on any withdrawal confirmation
Long-term holders: The Iran situation created a buying window. Whether you used it or not, the thesis has not changed

Sources: Cointelegraph | Wall Street Journal