Bitcoin Risks Six Straight Months of Losses — Is $40K the Bottom? – AirdropHunt

Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of its worst losing streak since 2018, with analysts warning that the bottom may not be in yet. Here’s what the data says and what crypto investors should do about it.

Key Facts

Bitcoin dropped to $65,000 over the weekend before a modest bounce to $67,750 on Monday — still down 46% from its $126,000 all-time high
Six consecutive monthly red candles would be the first since the brutal 2018 bear market, with March’s close deciding the streak
$70,000 is now resistance — what was once strong support has flipped, and the $68,300 long-term trend line has broken down
On-chain models point to $40K-$54K: Willy Woo’s CVDD model puts the potential floor at $45,500, while historical Fibonacci retracements suggest $39,000-$41,000
Short-term holder cost basis has dropped from $113,500 to $83,200, signaling further downside potential according to Alphractal
Whales are reducing exposure, adding selling pressure on top of an already fragile market
Bank of Japan rate hike bets at 69% for April 28, plus potential Fed tightening, create additional headwinds for risk assets including crypto
Fear & Greed index remains in “extreme fear” territory with more shorts than longs in order books

What This Means for You

🔴 Don’t catch the falling knife. Multiple bear flag breakdowns in 2026 have already triggered sub-$50K targets. If you’re looking to buy, analysts suggest waiting for a confirmed breakout above $71K before entering new positions.

📊 The Iran war matters for crypto too. The ongoing conflict has pushed oil above $115 and rattled global markets. The S&P 500 just posted five consecutive losing weeks — the longest since 2022. Crypto is not decoupling from risk-off sentiment; it’s amplifying it.

💴 Watch Japan closely. The Bank of Japan may hike rates in April, which could unwind the massive yen carry trade that has fueled rallies in risk assets globally. Past BoJ tightening episodes have triggered sharp crypto sell-offs.

💡 DCA if you believe, but size carefully. If you’re a long-term Bitcoin believer, dollar-cost averaging at these levels isn’t crazy — but keep positions small. The $40K-$54K range is where multiple models suggest the real bottom lies. Have cash ready for that scenario.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. These are market observations from publicly available analysis. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Sources: Cointelegraph | Cointelegraph | CoinDesk