Oil Falls Below $100 as Trump Pledges Iran Exit — But March’s 64% Price Spike Still Hurts Your Wallet

Oil prices just dipped below $100 for the first time in weeks — and global stock markets are surging on hopes the Iran conflict could end within months. But the damage from March’s historic oil spike is still rippling through your wallet.

The Headline

Brent crude fell to $98.65 on Wednesday before bouncing back to $101, after President Trump said the US will leave Iran in “two to three weeks” regardless of whether a deal is reached with Tehran. The statement — combined with Iranian President Pezeshkian saying Iran has the “necessary will” to end the war — sent markets sharply higher.

Global market moves:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225: +5.2%
• South Korea’s Kospi: +8.4%
• UK FTSE 100: +1.3%
• Germany’s DAX: +2.1%
• France’s CAC: +1.8%

March Was Brutal for Oil

Before this week’s relief rally, oil had one of its worst months in decades. Brent crude surged 64% in March — the biggest monthly gain since 1990, when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait took both countries’ oil off the market.

At its peak, oil hit nearly $120 a barrel. The cause: Tehran threatened to attack vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting down the world’s most critical oil shipping route.

The conflict is still active. On Wednesday, QatarEnergy confirmed one of its fuel tankers was hit by an Iranian cruise missile. Qatar’s military said Iran fired three missiles — two were intercepted, but the third struck the vessel.

Why Japan and Korea Got Hit Hardest

Japan and South Korea are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy. When the Strait of Hormuz disruptions started, their markets tanked. This week’s rally is essentially a relief bounce — investors pricing in a potential end to the conflict.

But oil refiners are still scrambling. They’re bidding aggressively for crude to boost production as jet fuel and diesel shortages spread across global markets.

What This Means for You

• Fuel prices: If the ceasefire holds, petrol prices should ease in the coming weeks. But March’s spike hasn’t fully worked through the system yet — expect elevated prices for a while longer
• Energy bills: UK energy prices are already under pressure from April’s increases. The Iran conflict adds another layer of uncertainty for summer pricing
• Investments: Markets are rallying on exit hopes, but this is fragile. Any escalation could reverse gains quickly
• Food prices: Higher oil = higher shipping costs = higher food prices. Watch for this in the next CPI readings

Trump is expected to give “an important update on Iran” this evening. Markets are watching closely — one speech could shift everything.

Stay cautious. This isn’t over yet.

Sources: BBC News | BBC News (Oil Prices)